ANew York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book Of 2015 The Most Important Book On Decision Making Since Daniel Kahneman S Thinking, Fast And Slow Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone Would Benefit From Seeing Further Into The Future, Whether Buying Stocks, Crafting Policy, Launching A New Product, Or Simply Planning The Week S Meals Unfortunately, People Tend To Be Terrible Forecasters As Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock Showed In A Landmark 2005 Study, Even Experts Predictions Are Only Slightly Better Than Chance However, An Important And Underreported Conclusion Of That Study Was That Some Experts Do Have Real Foresight, And Tetlock Has Spent The Past Decade Trying To Figure Out Why What Makes Some People So Good And Can This Talent Be Taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock And Coauthor Dan Gardner Offer A Masterwork On Prediction, Drawing On Decades Of Research And The Results Of A Massive, Government Funded Forecasting Tournament The Good Judgment Project Involves Tens Of Thousands Of Ordinary People Including A Brooklyn Filmmaker, A Retired Pipe Installer, And A Former Ballroom Dancer Who Set Out To Forecast Global Events Some Of The Volunteers Have Turned Out To Be Astonishingly Good They Ve Beaten Other Benchmarks, Competitors, And Prediction Markets They Ve Even Beaten The Collective Judgment Of Intelligence Analysts With Access To Classified Information They Are Superforecasters In This Groundbreaking And Accessible Book, Tetlock And Gardner Show Us How We Can Learn From This Elite Group Weaving Together Stories Of Forecasting Successes The Raid On Osama Bin Laden S Compound And Failures The Bay Of Pigs And Interviews With A Range Of High Level Decision Makers, From David Petraeus To Robert Rubin, They Show That Good Forecasting Doesn T Require Powerful Computers Or Arcane Methods It Involves Gathering Evidence From A Variety Of Sources, Thinking Probabilistically, Working In Teams, Keeping Score, And Being Willing To Admit Error And Change Course Superforecasting Offers The First Demonstrably Effective Way To Improve Our Ability To Predict The Future Whether In Business, Finance, Politics, International Affairs, Or Daily Life And Is Destined To Become A Modern Classic From The Hardcover Edition.
Is a well-known author, some of his books are a fascination for readers like in the Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction book, this is one of the most wanted Philip E. Tetlock author readers around the world.
- 352 pages
- Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
- Philip E. Tetlock
- 05 June 2017 Philip E. Tetlock